eCommons

 

EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION

Other Titles

Abstract

The purpose of this dissertation is to provide the means for contingency planners for regional earthquake risk mitigation to systematically determine how much to spend on mitigation versus post-event reconstruction and to prioritize alternative mitigation and reconstruction options. This dissertation is organized into three chapters. The focus of chapter one is the development of a method to estimate earthquake hazard for use in regional loss estimation. The method includes formulation of a linear program that selects a small subset of earthquake scenarios from a library of such events and estimates hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities so that their combined effect on the region of interest approximates that described by r-year return period for all possible events. The method is reproducible, computationally tractable, and results in earthquake scenarios, which are easily understood. We apply it to the identification of earthquake scenarios for Tehran, Iran. The second chapter develops an optimization model to help highly seismically active developing countries decide: (1) How much should be spent on pre-earthquake mitigation versus waiting until after an event and paying for reconstruction or simply not rebuilding damaged buildings?; (2) Which buildings should be mitigated and how?; and (3) Which buildings should be reconstructed and how? It extends previously developed optimization models to consider the particular issues that arise in such countries. First, the model allows for the possibility that some damaged buildings will not be reconstructed immediately and keeps track of any lost building inventory. Second, it allows the set of possible mitigation alternatives to be both the upgrade of a particular structural type or a change in the structural type. Third, the model relaxes the assumption that all buildings should be reconstructed to their pre-earthquake condition. Finally, it includes as one objective minimizing the chance of an extremely high death toll in any one earthquake as well as minimizing the average annual death toll across earthquakes. This chapter incorporates the results from the first chapter into a case study analysis for Tehran, Iran The focus of the third chapter is the introduction of equity into this type of analysis.

Journal / Series

Volume & Issue

Description

Sponsorship

NSF CMS-0555738 NSF CMS-0408577

Date Issued

2008-09-22T14:34:31Z

Publisher

Keywords

risk mitigation; earthquake scenario; resource allocation; equity

Location

Effective Date

Expiration Date

Sector

Employer

Union

Union Local

NAICS

Number of Workers

Committee Chair

Committee Co-Chair

Committee Member

Degree Discipline

Degree Name

Degree Level

Related Version

Related DOI

Related To

Related Part

Based on Related Item

Has Other Format(s)

Part of Related Item

Related To

Related Publication(s)

Link(s) to Related Publication(s)

References

Link(s) to Reference(s)

Previously Published As

Government Document

ISBN

ISMN

ISSN

Other Identifiers

Rights

Rights URI

Types

dissertation or thesis

Accessibility Feature

Accessibility Hazard

Accessibility Summary

Link(s) to Catalog Record